From air mattresses to $75 billion

Hey there,

Imagine pitching an idea where strangers pay to sleep in other strangers' homes. Investors called it unsafe and weird. That pitch belonged to Airbnb's founders, who heard countless rejections before proving it could work.

This wasn't unusual. Many dominant companies began as ideas that sounded ridiculous to experts. But their founders didn't push blindly. They used smart validation techniques to test demand without big investments.

Validation turns "stupid" ideas into smart businesses by gathering evidence first. This post covers how Airbnb, Instagram, and TikTok validated their concepts, plus ways to test yours efficiently.

Airbnb's "Crazy" Sleepover Idea

In 2007, Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia struggled with rent in San Francisco. They offered air mattresses to conference attendees as a hotel alternative. Investors dismissed it, with one calling it "the worst idea we've ever heard" over trust issues.

The founders tested manually by renting their space and collecting feedback. Early users loved the affordability but flagged safety concerns.

This showed real demand among budget travelers. They added reviews and photos to build trust. Airbnb grew to over 7 million listings worldwide, hitting a $75 billion valuation by 2020. Initial tests proved critics wrong by revealing desire for authentic travel.

Instagram's Pivot from "Useless" App

Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger launched Burbn in 2010 as a check-in app with photos. Users called it "cluttered" and "pointless" next to Foursquare. Investors passed, seeing no unique hook.

Data showed users loved photo filters but ignored check-ins. They stripped features, focusing on simple sharing, and beta-tested with a small group, tracking shares and time spent.

Users engaged heavily with the streamlined app. This pivot made Instagram a force, acquired by Facebook for $1 billion in 2012. It now has over 2 billion monthly users, showing focused testing saves ideas.

TikTok's "Silly" Video Experiment

Bytedance launched Douyin (TikTok's predecessor) in 2016 for short videos in China. Critics called it "frivolous" for kids, with investors doubting 15-second clips' value. Regulators even briefly shut it down.

Founder Zhang Yiming tested algorithms on small groups, measuring watch time and shares to refine recommendations. Data revealed users spent hours scrolling, more than on competitors.

These metrics validated the format, leading to global expansion. TikTok hit 1.5 billion downloads in three years, generating $17.2 billion by 2023. A "silly" idea became global through data.

Connecting the Dots: Validation Fundamentals

Start Small and Manual
Airbnb rented their space, Instagram beta-tested small, TikTok iterated limited. Use low-cost experiments to mimic your idea. This reveals behavior before scaling.

Measure What Matters
They tracked engagement like time spent and shares over vanity metrics. Focus on indicators of interest, such as repeat usage. Social proof kicks in when others engage.

Iterate Based on Feedback
Critics helped: Airbnb added trust features, Instagram simplified, TikTok refined. Treat validation as ongoing: collect data, adjust, test again. This aligns with real wants.

Why Validation Wins Over Gut Instinct

These stories prove "stupid" ideas succeed with proper validation. Airbnb, Instagram, and TikTok won by testing assumptions early and iterating before heavy investment.

The lesson: Failures often come from building unwanted things. Validation proves demand first, saving resources and turning flops into winners.

In a world of shiny ideas, disciplined testing gives the edge. Your next big thing might sound crazy, but smart validation can make it real.

What's one idea you're testing?